If it goes to preferences, the Greens will have returned ALP

Altona by-election live
Saturday, February 13, 2010 – 6:01 pm, by William Bowe
Votes Swing 2PP Swing
NAIN 468
Independent 1.6%
MUNDY 500
Independent 1.7%
WINDISCH 513
Socialist Alliance 1.7%
ROSE 9577 8.6% 41.9% 12.1%
Liberal 31.9%
STRANGWARD 3105 1.9%
Greens 10.3%
RIXON 114
Independent 0.4%
SHAW 505
Independent 1.7%
HENNESSY 13558 -16.2% 58.1% -12.1%
Labor 45.2%
.
62.9% counted 14 booths out of 14


12% swing. Labor taken to preferences




http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/

16% swing on primaries, that's one in 6 voters leaving the party.

One in 4 Labor voters.

Labor deserted en masse wrote:
16% swing on primaries, that's one in 6 voters leaving the party.

One in 4 Labor voters.

Watch out Telmo

and nearly every ALP deserter voted Liberal, not green

This result is fantastic.

The figures will really send a message to the ALP.

they are f*%ked.

Brimbank next - make Brimbank marginal!

http://www.theage.com.au/national/altona-in-12-swing-against-labor-20100213-nyis.html

Labor's Jill Hennessy was elected last night, but the normally faithful voters of Altona pushed the government to preferences for the first time in the seat's history

Mr Brumby said he was proud of the result. "I think the message that comes out of this byelection is that the direction for the state is right, the investments that we are making in a strong economy in education and health, these things are right," he said. "This is a very strong result for the Labor Party."

One senior factional source was less optimistic. "If the Premier thinks this is a great result for Labor then he may as well start preparing for opposition right now," the source said.

Brimbank is a combination of many seats. It is not one seat. All seats that cover Brimbank suburbs are however solidly Labor. There has been no demographic shift in these suburbs. They are solidly blue-collar, anti-Liberal and will remain so for a very long time.

Brimbank wrote:
Brimbank is a combination of many seats. It is not one seat. All seats that cover Brimbank suburbs are however solidly Labor. There has been no demographic shift in these suburbs. They are solidly blue-collar, anti-Liberal and will remain so for a very long time.

And denial is a river in Egypt.

The following Victorian electoral seats cover Brimbank: Footscray, Derrimut, Kororoit, Keilor.

Out of these, perhaps in the seat of Footscray non-Labor parties will gain votes. The other seats however are solidly Labor.

Footscray contains the following suburbs: Braybrook, Footscray, Footscray West, Kingsville, Maidstone, Maribyrnong, Seddon and Tottenham. Parts of the suburbs of Brooklyn, Sunshine and Yarraville.

Out of these, the following suburbs will swing against Labor: Footscray West, Kingsville, Maidstone, Maribyrnong, Seddon, Yarraville and Sunshine

Well the people in Altona can be assured that there will be no big changes in their electorate, at least while their new MP is working for them.

Look at what she had to say after becoming elected...

Was it "I am delighted to be elected and will now start looking closely and advocating for the needs of residents in this electorate"?

No such luck, Ms Hennessy advised reporters that she was looking forward to doing some housework and washing after a hectic few weeks.

Sounds like just another Western Suburbs Labor MP with eyes wide shut.

seats covering BCC wrote:
The following Victorian electoral seats cover Brimbank: Footscray, Derrimut, Kororoit, Keilor.



Didn't Telmo lose 10% of his primary vote at the last election?

And its not like Marlene of Kororoit has done anything to be proud of.

Who will be taking over Keilor from George?

she will only be their until the November state election. she got the most votes in Laverton/Altona Meadows, traditional blue-collar suburbs in this electorate. her votes in Altona, Sanctuary Lakes and Point Cook were less convincing. Unfortunately, as with other parts of the west, it makes no difference what Labor says or does in certain suburbs, the people will always vote Labor.

put a donkey with a big bow and big red lipstick and labor voters will vote for it what a dodo another marlene

seats covering BCC wrote:
The following Victorian electoral seats cover Brimbank: Footscray, Derrimut, Kororoit, Keilor.

Out of these, perhaps in the seat of Footscray non-Labor parties will gain votes. The other seats however are solidly Labor.

Footscray contains the following suburbs: Braybrook, Footscray, Footscray West, Kingsville, Maidstone, Maribyrnong, Seddon and Tottenham. Parts of the suburbs of Brooklyn, Sunshine and Yarraville.

Out of these, the following suburbs will swing against Labor: Footscray West, Kingsville, Maidstone, Maribyrnong, Seddon, Yarraville and SunshineSoon we are going to need about 60 people from all protest groups in the west to campain against the usless members out west
who do not represent us
Terry

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/byelection-blues-kennett-didnt-read-the-signs-does-brumby-20100215-o2tk.html

There are two major aspects of the byelection result that are worth considering. First, since Brumby's ascendancy to the premiership, the Altona contest was the third byelection in Labor's western suburban electoral heartland in which double-digit two-party swings against the government were recorded. These included a 10 per cent swing in Williamstown and a 16.6 per cent swing in Kororoit.

The Altona byelection does show that the electoral ground is shifting, however, and that the result was a poor one for the government. Brumby has eight months to stem an anti-government tide that, at the moment, appears to be running at about 4 per cent.

Stinky wrote:
Labor deserted en masse wrote:
16% swing on primaries, that's one in 6 voters leaving the party.

One in 4 Labor voters.

Watch out Telmo

We are very sure that Telmo will win the next election just simple there is no one else can challenge him, we haven't seen any real representation for Derrimut standing, Geraldine is a joke, come on Darlene you are the one for us!!

Most people now agree that Ms Reilly would take Derrimut from stinky Telmo if she did run.

State Elections wrote:


We are very sure that Telmo will win the next election just simple there is no one else can challenge him, we haven't seen any real representation for Derrimut standing, Geraldine is a joke, come on Darlene you are the one for us!!

Telmo is at serious risk. It doesn't have to be one person that takes him on, but a series of candidates all working against him to push his primary vote below 50%

Once it goes to preferences Telmo will be in trouble

Thanks Paul Austin - Great Article and captures the feeling of Victoria beautifully.

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/labors-tide-begins-to-turn-20100217-odt4.html

Excerpts from this article.


Newnham is now contemplating a Labor loss in November, arguing a swing of 3.9 per cent may be enough for it to lose its majority. ''The tide has turned against the government with a significant swing to the Liberals in Altona,'' he says. ''The swing is on.''



.......The Melbourne newspapers have been inundated with readers' letters critical of Brumby and his government. The Herald Sun published a two-page spread of them on Tuesday. Letters to The Age took Brumby to task for his post-poll pledge to move more quickly on crime and public transport problems in the nine months to the election. What had he and the government been doing for the past 10 years, readers demanded to know.

Voters have delivered a big rebuke to the government, the polls are tightening, the media is turning and, amid this cacophony, the Premier and his ministers are making some misjudgments and striking some shrill notes.

Stay tuned. This is what the beginning of the end of a government often looks like.